31st May 2006, 05:10 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Youngbuck,
If you can get a good score picking 2nd.3rd. or 4th fav. for the place you can make a steady earn. Firstly you need to spot what will most likely start as favorite, as that is the horse you don't want your bet to be on. Then decide which of the the others I've mentioned has the best chance of winning and then back it for the place. If you start looking for what you think can place rather than win, it's goodnight Irene. The show is over as you will be amazed at how many 'good place prospects' won't place. Your looking for good win prospects and among those 2nd.3rd. or 4th. favorites are good place prices compared to their win SP. Beyond 4th. fav. the place price generally becomes poor value.
Problem with odds-on favorites or even short prices favorites is that the place price is very volatile and you would not know what it is going to pay until after the jump. 2nd.3rd. or 4th favorite prices are far less volatile and you would be looking to be in the $1.60 to $2.60 place price range or $2 average. Sometimes you will end up on the SP favorite by default, but not very often.
Score 3 out of 5 average with the above method and your making money. Throw in a small win component along with your place bet and 2 out of 5 placed on average with make money [3 out of 5, serious gravy], because some of those will win by default [if they can place, they will also get up and win about 1 out of 5 to 7 races]. Looking for 2 out of 5 for the place with a small win component [I use 1x6 ratio] is easier to do that 3 out of 5 average for the place alone. I've been doing exactly that for the last month or so and it has been working a treat. Looking for 3 to 5yr. old horses in fields of 8 to 14 max. with good jockies and trainers is a good idea worth remembering.
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