BC
You wrote:
When placing my bets I will only bet if the odds are about 10% better than what I think is break-even point (eg. if I think the horse should be a $10 payout I will only bet if the odds are $11 or higher - this allows for the change in the odds after jump time)

My question is:
how/what do you use to base the, "$11 or higher" conclusion ?