Horses are athletes and like any athlete it's difficult to back up and keep producing peak performances every run. After a particular gut busting effort it is totally conceivable that a horse could be a little flat next time out. A lot of this depends on the trainer of course - how in tune he/she is with their horse and its condition.

However the problem with the so called 'bounce' theory is that it's impossible to predict before the race or even pick after the race. If a horse has reached a peak this run, do you assume it is going to bounce next run? That would be ridiculous.

What about after the race where a horse hasn't performed up to it last start peak?
There are literally dozens of reasons why a horse didn't perform in a race and the bounce theory would be one of the last you should consider.

On a related issue....Mark Read has held a theory for a number of years about our elite horses and how many of them are never the same and often break down sometime after an absolute peak run. His belief is that these horses naturally run faster and therefore place much more stress on their cardiovascular system, joints, mucles than ordinary horses. The effort and stress of such peak runs from elite horses can do irrepairable damage according to Read.

Maybe it's just coincidence but history is littered with plenty of elite horses who have broken down while just reaching their prime....leaving us to wonder what might have been.

Off the top of my head I can think of Might and Power, Saintly and going back to Dulcify. Mouawad was another of more recent times. I'm sure others can think of plenty more.

Bounce? Sure the concept exists but in a practical sense it's next to impossible to reliably capture either before or after the race and is therefore not much use.