in the old rem plante book he had a schedule of times since last start and it was something like this.
1 week 32% (cumulative)
2 69%
3 85%
4 91%

so anything else in speculative except for short races which up to 1100 have a strike of 33% from a spell.
1200 spell = 18%

with the super trainers with their own tracks may vary from the norm but
the statistics form a rule i think that up to 21 days is a good guide.

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laurie