noseyparker,

Thanks for your input.
The whole exercise is about building confidence.
Average strike rate comes in at 46.3% across all states.
Average daily outlay - 154.94 Units
Average daily return - 190.72 Units
Average outlay per bet - 37.58 Units
Average return per bet - 46.25 Units

So that loss of 218 Units represents approx. 6 consecutive losing bets.

So on that one day probably did not back 1 winner in 6 bets.
(Note : sometimes back 2 horses per race.)

More important to me is worst losing run - i.e. <-616> units from 17/3/01 - 28/7/01.

That indicates to me that to have confidence need a bank to withstand that loss without seriously denting confidence.

Bets are structured to take out 100 Units per winner so with bank of 2000 Units even with worst losing run in 10 years would only deplete bank by approx <-30%>.

These are the important measures to keep in mind when punting.

Perhaps should clear up a possible misconception.

As I said earlier trends, patterns etc. must be continually monitored.

Figures posted are for the latest variation of my system which is continually being refined.
The point being with an extensive data base any time I believe there may be a missing factor overlooked I can run the simulation over an extended period.

Yes, I know you will say I am retrofitting but the figures give me confidence and keep me going.
My actual figures over the last 5 years are slightly down on those published (POT ~ 16%).

The MAJOR POINT of my thread is the need for WORK to keep on top. Not to wake up one morning and think "I wanna be a pro" now what are the tax implications on my substantial winnings!

On the figures published above average daily winnings - 35.78 Units. (To take out 100 Units).

As explained above to give confidence need bank of 2000 Units (although in worst scenario only 30% ever risked - 600 Units).

So bank should double approx. every year (2000/35.78 = 56 days).

May sound very pedestrian to the more ambitious but that is the way I have built myself into this position.

Can always run system to achieve higher daily returns but involves Lower POT, Lower Strike Rate & much higher maximum loss.

Aim is to achieve the most comfortable position with regards to Risk & Return.

Cheers,

Chips41