partypooper,
As stated in first post firmly believe most important criteria are Strike Rate, POT and losing sequence.
Not long ago I think it was either Steve Waugh or Mark Taylor in a Test Series won the toss on every occasion. So the losing sequence for the opposing captain was 5 with an event that had a 50% probability or strike rate.
That is why losing sequences are so important. They condition you to the inevitable bad runs but having run extensive simulations and confidence in your methods you can overcome these spells. That is why in my respone to "noseyparker" i didn't dwell on the worst losing day of <-218> units but was more concerned with the worst losing sequence.
Last period Autumn had more losing days than average (50%) but still worked through it and came out OK.
Below will list last periods results :
1/3 Outlay 150 Units Return 200 Units Profit +50 Units
8/3 113, 100, <-13>
15/3 215, 500, +285
22/3 122, 100, <-22>
29/3 118, 0, <-118>
5/4 170, 300, +130
12/4 No bet
19/4 No bet
21/4 105, 200, +95
25/4 123, 0, <-123>
26/4 54, 100, +46
3/5 105, 100, <-5>
10/5 72, 100, +28
17/5 178, 300, +122
24/5 105, 100, <-5>
31/5 99, 0, <-99>
In total : Outlay 1729 Units
Return 2100 Units
Profit 371 Units
POT 21.46%
Breakdown showed :
Syd: 17 Bets Outlay 559 Return 600
Melb : 11 Bets Outlay 430 Return 600
Bris : 15 Bets Outlay 597 Return 800
Adel : 4 Bets Outlay 143 Return 100
You asked for a little something to work on.
In my first post mentioned number of races that satisfy primary criteria.
In Sydney total 3334 races
Melbourne total 3136 races
Brisbane total 2673 races
Adelaide total 2743 races
Average number of races per day satisfying primary criteria :
Sydney - 5.89
Melbourne - 5.44
Brisbane - 4.88
Adelaide - 5.2
The primary criteria is that the total number of starters in a race MUST NOT EXCEED 12.
It all comes down to STRIKE RATE, POT & LOSING SEQUENCE.
Sorry if this once again has become a little long-winded but as you can probably appreciate this is something of a passion for me.
Regards,
Chips41
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