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Old 19th July 2006, 11:48 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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You do have a point there

I'm not sure whether MR is more punter than bookie, or bookie than punter.

Too many punters think about strike rate (shotgun approach to snare a winner).

Too many bookies think about percentages (when betting, not fielding).

Both are doing themselves an injustice, by eating into their longterm profits.

While a high strike rate builds confidence, and percentages are very important, we can be blinded by the impact on the ACTUAL dollar return.

It's dollars won and in the pocket, not strike rate or percentages.

If you know what I mean.

Here's an example:

I go to the track and have three bets in three races and two of them win providing a profit of 5 units.

Or

I go to the track and bet five horses in three races and two of them win.

1 Bet 3 profit 5
2 Bet 15 profit 5

Same profit, bigger exposure (risk).

A bad day sees me lose 3 units in case 1
A bad day sees me lose 15 units in case 2

Very hard to come back from 15 units down as opposed to 3 units down.

Likely profit outcome has to be case 1

Profit has to be easier to make with less risk, even though the strike rate might not be as high.

Mr. MR is in the unique position of being able to manipulate his own odds.
He just might be settling for his 60%, so he can adjust his book accordingly.
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