19th July 2006, 03:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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KV,
I do see your point, yes I would bet in consecutive races, but not in the same race, as I'm betting against myself, against my profit.
We are assuming that the ratings are accurate.
Further example is this:
I have a system that provides 40% win POT and around 7% place POT.
I could easily back eachway and get a better return, say $25 e/way, total outlay $50.00, but I am far better off putting that $50 straight on the win.
Eachway I am diminishing the win component.
Even if I find 20% overlay on two runners in a race, if I back them both, I am diminishing the return to 10% as only 1 winner can salute, in consecutive races I can have this result:
Both lose
One wins One Loses
One Loses One Wins
Both Win
The last possiblility is not a factor when backing multiple runners in the same race.
The problem is that most ratings are not accurate enough, therefore cannot distinguish which of the horses are overlays, only that this set of 3 or 5 is if you back them all at "overs".
Take for example the propun ratings (I don't use them, nor do I have experience with them), but personally I would much rather back the Gold Specials etc, than take overs on all rated horses.
I'll bet you'll find they perform far better in the longrun.
Neil may care to correct me on this, but I do know the Gold Specials are supplied with an odds and unit bet suggestion.
These are the identified overs, as opposed to the unidentified overs.
All sound ratings have a place, but it is how one uses them that is the key.
I know of one subscriber who uses the ratings with his own filters successfully.
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