Morning Crash, yes in the scenario that you depicted; only that personal touch will provide the winner, but not all races are like that are they, the plain fact is that the "mechanical ratings" can and do pick the winner like clockwork, some better than others, but around 60% or so in top 3. In fact just taking the pre-postfav & 2nd fav as you say chucks up the winner 50% of the time without any knowledge of racing whatso-ever, and pretty near breaks even when backing best tote, though pretty boring as well I admit.

Not taking anything away from your skill, the thrill of assessing a race and it turns out they way you predicted, certainly is a great feeling, and I suppose why we all into backing horses in the first place.

Have a good one.