Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jfc
Nearly every public analysis I've seen (including Don Scott) produces complicated tables which turn out to be wrong. That's because they only count from one side.
Barrier 6 might sometimes be an inner gate, and at other times the outer.
|
It's quite simple jfc, they didn't account for the number of starters in a race.
But with 6 barriers over 2000m does anyone seriously think barrier 1 is any better than barrier 6?
The further the distance, the less the barrier impact.
The shorter the distance the more the speed impact.
Barrier positions are extremely overrated and exaggerated.
It's what happens or what a horse can do in the straight that matters, the early part is up to the jockey, not the barrier.
Barriers have very little to do with winning chances in fact.
Just my findings from a research I did two years ago.
However, here is an instance of the "Paradox".....
(negative barrier - negative chance = overlay)
Horses in "unfavoured" barriers mean a higher average price, therefore profit can be made, as horses overcome this obstacle more often than the price they are.
Horses in public favoured barriers are given too much of a discount by the public, so are great lay opportunities.