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Originally Posted by La Mer
Not sure that I agree with your sentiments jfc. I personally know of one person who claims to have had some success with Parrondo's Paradox & know of another who did a fair bit of work on the issue, claiming that used correctly it was possible to turn two negatives into positive.
There is a certain forum where what has been written by both can be located but I dare say if I mentioned that forum here the thought police would quickely have it removed. Pity about that, as this forum has lost a lot due to those damned thought police, but nevertheless, it is Propun's loss not mine.
But if you know who Chiron or Peter Jamieson are then perhaps you can work out which forum it is.
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La Mer,
I'm not sure if you've actually browsed the Markov chain link I posted, but I've now actually figured how to do the key calculations with a spreadsheet. Too much effort to post here, but if someone mathematically inclined genuinely wants to see it I'll try to eventually oblige.
Anyway it's more obvious than ever to me where the hoax is - Game B cannot be combined without irreperably altering its essence.
But it is inconceivable that the Parrondo model could be applied to racing.
Essentially it involves a Game B - a stair climb - where every (say) 3rd step is very unlucky.
But in racing if you know that certain races are very unlucky why don't you just skip them!
So I suspect your associate is deluding himself.
I'm sure I've vented how underwhelming I find arguments involving negative games and/or loss chasing.
But are other plans based on the notion that racing is different to roulette. That is true - there are definite long runs which defy conventional statistics. The trouble is you only find out about them AFTERWARDS. I don't know of anyone who succeeds in predicting runs early on. So these plans appear extremely suspect.
The method I use is to try and withstand even the worst possible run and always keep hanging in. Which means at some point I am forced to reduce. But a horrendous run usually wipes out a lot of competitors so if I survive I end up picking up far more juicy collects.