jfc,

You non believer :smile:

I once read somehwere a statement that went something like....."Just because I cannot build a house, does that mean that a house cannot be built?"

The point is that people will say something doesn't work, but in many instances it's simply a case that they haven't been able to make it work.

I can't agree when you say working with average times doesn't work. What do you mean doesn't work? If you mean that they won't generate a set of numbers that can produce big profits without any other form of analysis then I would have to agree. The fact is that I'm yet to see, read or hear of any set of ratings that does...despite what others will try and make you believe (usually when they want to sell it to you).

But if you mean you can't make a profit using speed analysis based on average times then I wholeheartedly disagree. How does >30% POT for the last 4 years seem? To me it works.

My software maintains form, as well as my own brand of speed and pace figures for every track and every distance in Australia. They ARE based on trimmed averages (as outlined in another topic), with the appropriate adjustments made to reflect the difference in class that races at each track around the country.

The ratings when combine with sensible form analysis are extremely profitable...primarily because they are not mainstream and the betting public/market does sometimes make slight errors in judgement when assessing the ability of individual horses.

So we should never forget that our opinions about the worth of an approach are based on our own experiences. In some cases they are right, there are somethings that just don't work. But in many other cases those opinions are more reflective of the inability of the individual person to make them work.

I only make this point to balance the argument that method based on average times DON'T work according to you. That may be your experience, but in my experience they have been very profitable for a number of years. Personally I am happy for people like yourself to keep peddling the message...it's comfort that my edge can still be maintained for some years to come :smile: