16th June 2003, 02:02 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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osulldj,
You method is flawed in that it doesn't cope with track conditions. So if route X has a significantly different proportion of runs on worse than good tracks than route Y, the resulting computed relationship will be wrong.
Onto why average times don't work, apropos the track record thread.
Typically averages will produce a significant number of situations where superior classes have INFERIOR standard times. That is the quintessence of "not working".
I believe this is because (unlike the USA) horses are ridden so as to loaf as much as possible. i.e. too many slow paced races.
Quote:
On 2003-06-13 09:55, osulldj wrote:
I have established class adjusted standard times for every Australian race track at every distance based on data going back to 1996.
The best approach I have found is to take a trimmed average...and then compare this against the median as a sanity check.
Take the dataset for each distance, take the fastest and slowest 10% of records away and average the rest. Then compare this against the median. If they are close to each other this implies your data is normally distributed which in practical terms it should be if looking across a large enough sample size.
Hope this helps.
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