Hi jfc

[quote]
On 2003-06-16 15:02, jfc wrote:
osulldj,

You method is flawed in that it doesn't cope with track conditions. So if route X has a significantly different proportion of runs on worse than good tracks than route Y, the resulting computed relationship will be wrong.

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I understand your point. However, my method does cope with different track conditions. Only races conducted on a track declared as "good" are considered in determining the trimmed average. So many years of historical information ensures appropriate sample sizes, there are also other professional statistical tests to ensure the validity and reliability of the numbers.

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Onto why average times don't work, apropos the track record thread.

Typically averages will produce a significant number of situations where superior classes have INFERIOR standard times. That is the quintessence of "not working".

I believe this is because (unlike the USA) horses are ridden so as to loaf as much as possible. i.e. too many slow paced races.

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Again, I understand your point and it's a valid one....but not unsolvable.
Every race in my database for the last 6 years has an associated class value....it far more accurately reflects the class of race than the description given by race clubs. Initially the averages are taken across all races so to provide the trimmed average time and average class value at that track.

It's then done by class value range and what you find is a normal distribution of times. Within a given class there are times ranging from slow for that class to fast...this reflects your point about the influence of pace and also natural variability in ability...I can tell you that in nearly all cases, across a large enough sample the times are normally disbtributed. There are just as many races run at very fast pace which produce times that are rarely repeated as there are races at slow pace that don't provide and accurate indication of the fields ability.

The times at the different class value range and some regression analysis across all tracks and distance provides an indication of a standard time at what I call zero class value. All tracks and distances therefore have a time that can be directly compared.

The standard times at Port Macquarie I use will be much faster than the actual average time run there because the horses that run there are lower class animals. The standard represents a 0 class value race, well beyond the class of horse that races there. This enables me to compare directly figures at Rosehill to Wyong to Port Macquarie etc.

If I run a quick query in my database related to my average speed numbers by some of the class groups I see the following:

2YO HCP Avg = 85
3YO HCP Avg = 95
3YO G1 Avg = 102
Class5 Hcp Avg = 93
Class6 Hcp Avg = 95
R1 HCP Avg = 94
R2 HCP Avg = 96
F&M HCP Avg = 96
F&M G1 Avg = 103
Open HCP Avg = 99
Open G1 HCP Avg = 105

These are not my numbers they are the actual averages for each class group from the last 2 years and they show as I would expect them to, reflecting the difference in class. Better horses run faster.

My own approach also incorporates the influence of early speed on overall time which is very clear when understood. This largely overcomes the objection most have that you can't use speed because pace makes times so variable.

I can honestly say that no expense has been spared in the investment in technology to produce and maintain my own data for every race at every track held around Australia every day.

Does it all make me an automatic winner, of course not. It's one approach that provides information and tools other don't have and don't understand. It's my winning edge. The cost is and continues to be funded from punting winnings at >30% POT for the last 4 years.

So jfc I take your points, they are very valid and someone looking to embark on the speed journey should take note of what you say for their own learning. However, your points are not unsolvable with the right data, technology and concepts. I have proven that, maybe not to you, but most importantly myself and a small group of professional colleagues who share the workload.

So don't take offence if I say your assertion that 'it doesn't work' is plain not true :smile: