1st August 2006, 05:31 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mad
Someone like JFC would be able to confirm this but as far as i am aware the answer would go along the lines of this:
Favourite: 57%
Underdog: 43%
0 favourites winning: 0.43*0.43*0.43 = 7.95%
1 favourites winning: 0.57*0.43*0.43 = 10.5%
2 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.43 = 13.97%
3 favourites winning: 0.57*0.57*0.57 = 18.51%
Think that's correct.
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Surely lots of you would benefit from trying to work out the correct answer? Why no takers?
Anyway this is a simple problem answered by the Binomial Disribution.
There are obviously 3 different ways of 1 favourite winning.
Likewise for 2 favourites winning.
So if you multiply the middle 2 calculations by 3, the new total probability should be 1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution |