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On 2003-06-18 15:22, DR RON wrote:
I still think however that there may be some instances where times can help establish the field strength of a particular grade of race. For example, a horse wins a race by ten lengths, is it the next Phar Lap or has it come up against a bunch of camels? I take it your methods of form study are more class/weight related! What factors would you use to determine whether a ten length win is a sign of things to come?
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La Mer: Dr. Ron, it would depend on how the horse won the race -did it do so withstanding any presssure or was an all-the-way win - was the time fast, slow or ordinary - did it get all the favours, barrier, track bias, jockey ability etc.

Many of these speedy squibs when stepped up in class at their next start are found wanting, mainly because of the class factor, which means the extra stress and pressure of running against a better type of opposition.

What you also have to consider is the value on offer - ten lengths winners usually go out at very short odds next time, remember Murphy's Blu Boy at Caulfield a few months ago when it won one race by seven lengths then went out as a 1/3 fav at its next start and flopped.

What to look for? Good time for one; a fighting effort for another; what other form has come out of the race; other evidence to support the performance are some, but there are others.
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Dr. Ron: some ratings I have seen on websites seem to vary quite a bit as far as giving a class figure for each race is concerned. e.g after allowing for weight and beaten margin adjustments even class 2 events at the same track can vary by up to 5 kilos. Would these figures be very accurate?
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La Mer: Quite likely as now more than ever before there is a lot of blurring within the classes, particularly those down the bottom end of the scale.

Have a look at the Belmont meeting today and you will see all bar one race is supposedly a Class 6. In reality, there is arguably not one genuine C6 race on the program - they are somewhere between C2's and C5's, but this is how they do things with their midweek metro races in the west - they are nearly always classified as C6's irrespective of what the real class of the race should be.

So variances in the real class of a race even when they are officially classified as the same type can vary greatly - Don Scott thought so thirty years ago and the racing scene has got a lot more blurred since then.

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2003-06-18 16:45 ]

[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2003-06-18 16:46 ]