i have said before on this forum that i wouldnt know a good thing if i fell over it and i think that sums up racing these days.
you have to be fairly sharp to pick up the signs. things like paul sutherland taking two horses to goulburn last week and missing the double by an inch. gary portelli took grand juror to hawkesbury today and got good odds. (actually backed that one)
last saturday sonarchi had won over 1400 metres and had been placed in listed company twice. (saw it after the race)
the over analysis can be mind boggling and i think you are right standing back a bit probably does have someting going for it.