ShoeIn,

Some time ago I had a similar problem that I went to great lengths to address. What I found was that an initial 'field cull' was required.

Statistically speaking there are four criteria that I have found produce between 75-80% of winners:

1. Top 6 in Pre-Post Prices;
2. Rated within four (4) points of top rated Zipform horse;
3. Finished in the first five place getters last start;
4. Weighted below 56kgs and if above 56kgs not rising more than 2.5kgs from last start.

These four criteria will generally narrow a field down to approximately 33% of its original size.

If you have more than a third you are potentially entering a lottery of a race!

I have found that once I have culled the field an analysis of consistency factors such as place strike rate, last three start performances, Average Prizemoney and distance suitability brings up a ranking between horses left in you culled field.

And of course track condition enters the equation at some point!

Hope this gives you some food for thought?


LB


[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-06-19 21:38 ]