This is an original problem which bugged me this morning. I suspect many of you will learn something by trying it.

Imagine that in a hypothetical season:

All Top 8 spots decided bar 8th, where A & B are the only possibilities.

Only 2 rounds left

A is 1 game ahead of B

A & B won't be playing each other.

Both have 50% chance of winning their remaining games. No draws.

If both end up equal 8th on wins then resolve with a coin toss.

What are B's chances of making the Top 8?