8.9844% = Agreed

Problem 3 can keep for now.

Round to 9% as we move to Problem 4:

This should be quicker and easier than the others, so therefore there should be an avalanche of responses.

And the answer seems counter-intuitive to me.

Problem 4:

4 Rounds remaining.

Team G is 2 games out of the 8.

It is directly below 5 Teams all equal on wins. A, B, C, D, & E.

G has an equal 9% chance of finishing ahead of any one of the other 5.

The only 2 possibilities are:

- G fails to make the 8
- G makes the 8, kicking out 1 of A - E

So what is the probability of G making the 8?

In case I'm being too subtle, this hypothetical problem is moving quite close to the current real AFL one.