16th August 2006, 06:06 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,440
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Hi crackone,
No I haven't gone back to check, but I think the basis is pretty solid.
My research has gone into more productive areas lately.
The benchmark of a good jockey without actually looking at each of his individual rides, is the strike rate on favourites compared to the strike rate of overall favourites.
It also signals, those that may be throwing rides even though they are very talented and provided with the best livestock, or could it be that they simply don't do well under pressure (owner / trainer)?
Without getting into hot water, there are some very talented jockeys who continue to lose on the favourites more than they should and bob up when they are further out in the betting.
I won't blame the jockey, as the cause could be "elsewhere", all I'll say is that statistically some hot pot jockeys are poor bets!
It's interesting that my list of better performing jockeys often come under the wrath of stewards for bumping or shifting trying to win, while the negative riders often have the run "queried" by stewards (not riding out fully, not giving horse best available run, riding reverse to horse's pace etc etc).
Very interesting indeed!
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