23rd August 2006, 01:55 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,432
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by YoungBuck
Dare I ask Chrome, without giving too much away, what is your preferred method of laying?
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Dinner and a movie 
O.K. I'll answer sensibly.
All my methods whether backing or laying revolve around the same ideas. It's an angle rather than a method I guess.
Without getting into the Geldings thing again, here is an example I posted elsewhere and also replied to Partypooper re Moodometer two weeks ago.
(snipped)When Mares backup within a very short period of time, they are not
consistent, they need longer to recover.
Take Moodometer, went around almost odds on and ran nowhere in Perth two
Saturday's ago.
There are two advantages to this knowledge, a mare which does back up and
win is invariably well above average and a lot of them are champions.
Glamour Puss
Makybe Diva
Private Steer
River Dove
Sunline
La Bella Dama
All very hand mares and a couple of champions. The point is, they back up
and win and go on to bigger and better things. The one's that don't go on
with it, usually go out to stud or out with injury, not through non
performance.
Laying mares that are backing up is also a money spinner, as only a handful
can do it, so best to check if they've done it before.
So watch out for mares that backup and win and follow them.
Moodometer was rated 100 on Techform, she was backing up within 7 days and
was only beaten 2.0 lengths previous start in a Listed race and won her race
previous to that. She went around at $2.20.
Immediately that was a flag to me, short price, a mare and backing up
quickly.
So what of the rest of them, where to look....
Volition rated 96
Scenic assault rated 95
Cat In A Hat rated 94
Hotel Casuarina rated 93
Legend Express and Star Trek rated 92
Beyond Dispute rated 91
Volition won a Welter 7 days ago, was a gelding and rated highly.
Scenic Assault was beaten previous start by 7.5 lengths.
Cat In A Hat was beaten 4 lengths in a Welter previously.
Hotel Casuarina beaten 3.5 lengths in a Welter.
Legend Express only beaten 0.3L in a Welter 7 days ago.
Star Trek beaten 5.8 lengths in an Open
Beyond Dispute beaten 2.8L in an Open 14 days ago.
Selections then by class performance and fitness had to be Volition, Legend
Express and Beyond Dispute, all others were beaten too far to improve and
have a shake at this. (my personal cut off is 3 lengths beaten margin).
The winner was Beyond Dispute @ $22.70 the placings were filled by Scenic
Assault and Cat In A Hat.
So Volition and Legend Express didn't fire, the two high rated horses ran
the placings even though they were well beaten last start.
It really doesn't prove much, other than Moodometer was extremely
vulnerable, as there were a few geldings rated very close to her which were
rated just below her and fit.
This is just one example of the application of my method.
Out 3 units, in 22.70 units.
I can count on one hand the number of mares that can do it successfully, even when dropping two or three classes or up to 5kg, and they are exceptional - the champions go up in weight or class and do it, but the percentage is so small, it's a very lucrative area. |