Sorry TheEasyRun i cant agree with you on that one. Weight, barrier draw and sectionals have a direct influence on the race. For instance a noted leader running in a 1000m race at Ipswich that has drawn badly with speed everywhere inside it faces a huge task as opposed to the exact same field/barriers at a course like Warwick Farm. As for weight, well "weight can stop a train"!

IMO working out a speed map along with each runners potential final 600 would be one of the first things i would be looking at. Granted if the horse is not fit then its not going to win no matter what. But take Lonhro's last run against Grand Armee, Beasley walked the first 1400 and with Grand Armee capable of coming home in around 34, with Lonhro so far back he would have had to break 32 seconds for his last 600! Not possible.