I have to agree with MV2040 (and Crash alluded to it also) that even if a horse is in good condition and its last run suggested it might improve, if its running style doesn't suit the likely pattern of the race (i.e. leaders dawdling the first 600m or going like the clappers first 600m) it will struggle.

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Ever get the feeling that the world is a tuxedo and you are a pair of brown shoes?