25th August 2006, 05:43 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Nirvana for the average bloke on the punt would be around $50,000 a year.....roughly $4000 to $5000 a month. A $6000 starting bank for that is plenty.
If no one else can see that this is in fact impossible to sustain and the chance of losing a year's wages or even a $500 bank betting on 7/1 shots, is actually odds-on probably 1/20, then I just give up.
Unless you can pick one in two winners @7/1, then it might be possible, but there is reality to deal with!
I'll have a wee look at Sahasastar's post:
Let's assume his strike rate is 1 in 5.. and he makes $7.50 on average.
An extremely healthy 50% POT, hard to acheive these results but certainly not impossible if your selection processes are thrifty.
I ran a drawdown simulation 50 times on these excellent returns over 1000 bets, the average drawdown was 33.3 units. Now factoring in an unexpected bad run might occur the average of the highest 25 drawdown results is 41 units. Let's say we are prepared to bet on this very successful system aggressively and are happy in the knowledge that if a bad run might occur we are very confident we'll still be okay as our betting is geared towards this bad run happening.
And just how exactly is TheEasyRun or anyone else going to make $5,000 per month betting 2% of a $6,000 bank on each selection?????????
The average drawdown matters not one iota, it's the maximum drawdown that will bust the bank. Some simple calculations tell you that to earn $5,000 per month, your selections have to be invested in far too heavily on too small a bank and therefore it would not take anywhere near the maximum drawdown to kill the bank.
So we'll bet 1.2% of our account (factoring in the 41 units drawdown might occur). That's saying if the bad run occurs in the near future we won't lose more that 50% of our account.
I agree protect the bank, but how are we going to make $5,000 to match our monthly wage with a $72.00 bet at 7/1, even if it wins?
How many bets using this method to turn $6,000 into $50,000?
If he has a phenomenal strike rate not that many, but I don't think he's going to find that many bets @7/1 that fit his criteria AND win in any month!
If you've been doing it long enough how hard would it be to find just 1 horse out of the 100 odd that race every day that is 50% or more over the odds.. just 1 horse.
Crikey, if it were that easy (forgive the pun), everyone would do it.
That 1 horse has to win and that is exactly what has not been factored in anywhere - when they don't win.
All this pie in the sky stuff is what dreams are made of, reality pays the bills!
So let's stop ridiculing the guy and hear what he has got to say.
If you do the math properly it's obvious that he is the one ridiculing us and it appears that only myself and one or two others have picked up on this.
Very surprised, when the basics are faulty.
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