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Old 25th August 2006, 06:48 PM
Sahasastar Sahasastar is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 94
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Rightio.... Chrome.

The 50 sims I ran the worst drawdown was 58 units.
On the sim I had already factored in the 37th worst drawdown result (half of bottom half). You could reasonably expect it to be around half of the sims.. only 33 units.. not the 41 I done it on. No-one knows the exact drawdown, it's impossible to get it exactly right. So I played the percentages, yet still overcooked it to be safe.

Let alone not running the expected drawdown on only the 350 bets. I would say the expected drawdown that could occur would decrease significantly with such a small sample of bets. Yet I still ran the test over the longer term.

Now, assuming the 2% chance of the worst drawdown did happen - 58 units
(1 in 50 chance of the 58 units occuring)...

Betting 1.2% x 58 units = lose 70% of bank.. Broke.. certainly not!!!
I'd suggest the system might need reviewing though, or it'd take balls to ride out of the rough trot and stick to it.

..or recalculate your bet percentage for a 58 unit drawdown if that makes you happy... 0.8%. The power of compound interest would at a guess turn the 350 bets into maybe 450-500 bets at worst without running a sim. Slightly over a year at 1 per day, but still PFG.

Surely you Chrome understand that we don't care if the overlay on the day does not win.. it's the average return WHEN THEY WIN!!.. a winner each 5th day at $7.50 on long term averages.
Was that part hard to understand for you, I'll explain it on a blackboard for you with big writing in chalk.

Previous 12 months results on a few of my betting systems:

Just a small sample.

51 sel, $122 ret, 29% srw, 59% srpl.
56 sel, $119 ret, 27% srw, 61% srpl.
74 bets, $130 ret, 39% srw, 67% srpl.
86 bets, $151 ret, 25% srw, 51% srpl.
60 bets, $86 ret, 22% srw, 52% srpl.

That's about 300 bets in the last year returning 70% profit.. once again, I under-estimated my simulation for fear of not being believed.

With the amount of place getters to winners, I can certainly expect these returns to continue.

I agree that 1 year would be pushing it.. but CAN IT BE DONE!
Absolutely without a doubt it can be done, someone is doing it out there, and I expect to be doing it real soon.

Would I bet these percentages though? If I was returning the figures quoted I'd have no problem at all betting 1% of my account.. and as my account grows by 1% each time. Diminish my bets be 1%. Easy.
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