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Old 28th August 2006, 11:31 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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I'd certainly want more than $7 odds about any new quality contributors here after they witness the hostile xenophobic reception given to TheEasyRun for his debut effort.

Presuming he is genuine there is no harm in what he posted and he should be given an opportunity to have his say, rather than being subjected to well-worn despicable tactics such as conveniently misquoting him in order to start a stoush. The challenges should wait until he's been heard out.

There are a number of regulars who would benefit far more from some firm scepticism.

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Now apropos CP's perplexing position:

Assume fractional odds of 6/1 (= 7$ decimal).

And a 36% POT - hardly that staggering for a selective system, particularly when you contrast that with the p57-esque headlines now embraced by management.

And apply the Kelly Criterion.

That means staking 6% of your bank.

With average luck that equates to notionally growing your bank by 2.16% a bet.

So you'd expect your bank to double after 33 bets.

And triple after 52 bets. Not very long to wait.

If you start with $2,000 betting $120 (and keep your day job as TER stated) then it won't be that long before that triples to $6,000 and $360 bets.

Then cap your betting at that because it gets far more trickier and uncomfortable in leviathan mode.

How much the above fits in with TRE's scheme is yet unknown.

But until we hear more, TRE's claims have not been proved outrageous.
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