
28th August 2006, 02:33 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
jfc,
To determine the bias you divide the number of wins (or places) by the number of runs in the barrier.
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Actually I do compute that ratio (= "fair share" for argument's sake) in all my tests. It is obviously more meaningful than Strike Rate.
Consider these tests based on my original sample comparing barriers 1&2 (inner) versus 9+ (wide):
Constant Field Size of 10, Any Price:
10.7% Inner S/R
9.4% Wide S/R
Or as Fair Share: 107% versus 94%.
Suggesting the wide have a negative bias:
But with Constant SP of precisely 2/1 and any Field Size:
27.1% Inner S/R
29.7% Outer S/R
Or as Fair Share: 186% versus a whopping 342%.
Damning evidence that for favourites the Market overpenalises wide barriers.
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