28th August 2006, 06:29 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
And if Darren Beadman rides the card in Sydney 4 consecutive times, it won't be long......
The reality is it could happen, but the odds are well and truly against it.
Let's remember we are talking about 7/1 shots.
Run of outs is inevitable.
Even at 30% POT, how long do you think it will take to triple the bank on 7/1 shots?
You're not going to make $5,000 per month.
And you jfc, a master at numbers, surely you can see what will happen even if the "system" is even a little out of luck.
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CP,
I remind you that the Kelly Criterion formula is the Bank fraction:
Edge/Odds
So the relatively large (fractional) odds of 6/1 are factored into that.
If, for argument's sake, the odds were 2/1 with a 36% Edge then you would expect to triple your bank in only 18 bets.
The formula assumes average luck. It's not too hard to find free on-line graphical Kelly calculators to demonstrate how fickle luck is. But anyone unable to cope with that should find another recreation.
I recall an account by Blackjack entrepreneur Ken Uston where he endured ~30 (from memory) consecutive losing full-time days, but then things picked up again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Uston
Those twits that infest forums with their fanciful ponderings about quitting their day jobs to gamble full-time would do well to consider how they'd like to handle such inevitable runs outside their control, with nothing to fall back on.
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