My money would be in my pocket.

You should only bet when you feel like you have a winning advantage over the market, situations of such uncertainty aren't really key opportunities to play.

Unless the horse is a ridiculous price and it is the only factor going against it, why would you back a runner that isn't suited at the distance? or suited at the going for that matter?

I have a philosophy that says the race should tell you if there is a profitable play to make, if you have to work the race over too hard then you are most likely forcing a bet which in the long run isn't the way to play the game profitably.

Situations like those outlines Dr. Ron are a classic example of forcing a bet.