Thought I'd post a little synopsis of the longer priced winners today.
Often there is no reason to have them and they are true bolters, but in more cases they have been overlooked because of ONE factor and are simply overpriced by the market.
Randwick R7 Coalesce $27.30
Entered into an average grade Group 3 first up over 1400m
First up over 1400m was only beaten 1.8L in a Hawkesbury maiden
First up over 1600m in a Welter at Eagle Farm - WON.
First up beaten 3.5L in a much stronger Welter at Randwick
Been placed in Listed grade
Been placed and won in Group 3 company, the best being a win at Flemington over longer distance.
The bottom line is that this is a horse that had won first up over similar distance and had won in better grade.
The horse is better known over longer distance, but had proved itself first up over shorter distance.
Surely 27/1 was overs???
Randwick R9 Whoever $42.10
Lightly raced mare stepping up to restricted Listed race
Won 2 from 6 starts
Placed 4 from 6 starts
Beaten 0.8L last start in a class 3 over 1100 and prior won a class 3 at canterbury over 1100m
Surely on form (although a leap in class) it was way over the odds.
I couldn't find one longshot winner today, there wasn't a very good case for.
I'm not saying I backed any of them, just that one can see easily that the market got it wrong by a longshot.
