11th October 2006, 04:44 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The Swooper
Morning All,
I was wondering if anyone knows how to estimate what a trifecta
dividend would be by using win dividends from a live odds service? Appreciate any thoughts. THanks, Gary
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Anyone trying this with real money should be prepared to be taken to the cleaners by ruthless sharks.
If you have decimal odds in column A
Then this expression in B will derive (estimated) probabilities
=HARMEAN(A:A)/COUNT(A:A)/A1
The Trifecta Probability for A B C is:
a*b*c/(1-a)/(1-a-b)
The dividend is the inverse.
I have written about the theory here.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=13113 |