I tend to agree with this statement. After his defeat I went looking for possible reasons and found it interesting to compare his preparations this year and last.

2005

14/8 Flemington 1200
28/8 Werribee 1410
10/9 M Valley 1600
23/9 M Valley 2040
8/10 Caulfield 2000 (Yalumba)

2006

12/8 Flemington 1200
2/9 Caulfield 1400
23/9 Caulfield 1800
14/10 Caulfield 2000 (Yalumba)

Last year he had four runs prior to the Yalumba with the backup time for each race between 13-15 days.

This year he has only had three runs prior to the Yalumba and each was off a three week backup. I think I read/heard somewhere that his preparation this year was supposedly better because it was less rushed but I am wondering if indeed the horse has attained the same fitness levels as last year, given the (apparently) lighter preparation.

This is pure speculation of course and the truth may simply be that the horse had an off day.

wunfluova