Tauto,

Sorry but I have to disagree with you there. If you take into account the TAB take (around 15%) then the prices ON AVERAGE are quite a good indication of winning changes. For example around 50% of $1.80 starters win and around 10% of $8.50 runners win - once you adjust for the TAB take this is almost exactly what should happen. There is a slight bias in the market towards longshots (ie. short priced runners win slightly more often than their odds suggest whilst long priced runners win slightly less often than their odds suggest) but not enough to overcome the TAB take.

The fact that around 30% of favourites win is exactly what you would expect - given the average price is around $3.00. An efficient market does not imply that the favourite will win all the time - instead it means that the price of runners is a good indication of their winning chances.

This does not mean, of course, that ALL runners are priced correctly, merely that ON AVERAGE the market gets it right - the challenge is trying to work out when the market has got it wrong!

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