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Old 18th October 2006, 08:26 PM
Chuck Chuck is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
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heres a pretty good review of the field i just saw on another forum

The field.....

1 DELTA BLUES (Katsuhiko Sumii) 56
Has the runs on the board in Japan, though his late 2005/early 2006 form isn't quite as impressive as late 2004 where he ran 3rd in the Japan Cup. He does have a 3rd to Deep Impact this year, but was beaten over 7 lengths. Reading between the lines the horse is both better suited in the Melbourne Cup and has a slight query over whether he can recapture the form of two years ago. Nevertheless a worthy starter who isn't out of it.

2 IMPERIAL STRIDE (Saeed bin Suroor) 55.5
Had he started in last years Cup he would have come in with about as impressive a formline as any Euro to have run at Caulfield. He had been very impressive going through the grades but had some trouble earlier this year with an injury. Nobody appears exactly sure how much effect this has had on him. His one run this year was against a field most British observers described as walkers and he narrowly got up to beat them. Going by the rating he received there he would need to have improved a heap with that run. Falls into the question mark category.

3 RAILINGS (John Hawkes) 55.5
Adds some meat to the race as we at least know he's a proven 2400 performer and rates fairly consistently over the past year. Has been solid if unspectacular this season and should be running on for some money at the business end again, albeit with the nagging concern he may actually be set more for Flemington this time around.

4 ROMAN ARCH (Robbie Laing) Noel Callow 55
Not racing in the best of form, pretty much like he was before winning the Australian Cup in March. Gets to play the "likeable old warhorse" role for this years Cup, and while he has the proven class to win should wander around unplaced, much like I said Natural Blitz would last year (Yes I know he ran 4th)

5 OUR SMOKING JOE (Lee Freedman) Jim Cassidy 54.5
Auditioned for the "likeable old warhorse" role that Roman Arch won and reported to be majorly p****** at missing out (look for a sly kick or two around at the start). Brings consistent spring form into this and seems to be running around the same level as last season, where that level got him some good wins and placings around this distance range. Couldn't actually have him to win myself but likely to be not far away and will obviously appreciate any showers.

6 HEADTURNER (John Hawkes) 54
Winner of a true shocker of an AJC Derby and didn't do anything in the Turnbull to suggest he's up to winning this. His runs last season would suggest the step up to 2400 is an assist, and he is drifting out to an almost tempting price but generally in the Cups it's not a great idea to back horses without any recent placed form (Makybe in 2003 excepted) and his run looked much like Plastered's going into last years Cup, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him put in a similar one paced finish just behind the placegetters.

7 GRAND ZULU (Gwenda Markwell) 53.5
Solid enough last week in what seemed an unsuitable race. Hard to assess whether he is actually near that 2004 form but he is at least a proven 2400 horse and could win at his best.

8 SHORT PAUSE (David Hayes) 53.5
Has some decent Euro form, the problem is it was a long time ago and his current form is rubbish. If the field was selected on recent form he wouldn't be near a start, so I assume he'll start 200-1 and go around at the same one pace he has shown to date in Aussie. At his best would have been a worthwhile starter.

9 TAWQEET (David Hayes) Dwayne Dunn 53.5
Conversely has added to his sound European form with consistently improved runs in recent months. Is a horse I've been impressed with both in reading his British form and in the races I've seen in Aussie. I noted with his Metrop win the commonly expressed opinion that he had the best run and should actually have won easier, however the horse isn't really the type who is going to explode to a 3 length victory even after a soft trip. Definite chance with the race run to suit, and even if not he'll be running on better than most, though obviously he has the Melbourne Cup as his goal so the connections would be less disappointed than most with a late finishing 4th/5th.

10 ACTIVATION (Graeme Rogerson) Michael Rodd 53
Has become one of the talk horses of the field after his Metrop 2nd, though I do wonder if that flattered him slightly as I thought it was probably a race he was suited to having had plenty of recent racing in Sydney and with a strong pace on up front. No doubting his raw ability, and he at least seems to be showing it more consistently these days, but I rate him just outside my top three.

11 POP ROCK (Katusuhiko Sumii) Damien Oliver 53
Comes into this with the impressive career formline of 14336331-689-3331111. That sounds very Eye Popper-ish, which is notable as nearly every media report about this horse has mentioned his last start win over Eye Popper in a G2 2500 in May, with 3.5 lengths back to third. Personally I thought the more interesting formline was the win three starts back where he beat Machikaneumajirusi. I wouldn't have a clue how strong that race was but I'm wondering if various Aussie commentators had a whip around to send that horses's connections a few bucks to stay at home. Back to the more flowingly named Pop Rock, while he doesn't have G1 form in Japan his form through the grades looks very good and he reads more like a Caulfield Cup horse than a Melbourne Cup horse to me. His four wins in a row have all been from 2200 to 2500 and by margins of 5 lengths, 1 length, 6 lengths and a neck over Eye Popper. The field sizes have been 16-16-12-17 which is also a nice bonus factor, because contrastingly when a horse comes from Europe often it's been racing in smaller fields. Now I won't claim to have much ability to line up Japanese and Australian form, I don't think many people can, but the horse appears to have done everything right to date and at the expected odds I'll most likely be backing him.

12 SERENADE ROSE (Lee Freedman) Steven King 52.5
A nice diplomatic person would write one of these previews and say lovely things about all the horses. Being as diplomatic as I can and avoiding the urge to compare SR with previous floppy Oaks winners, I'll simply say she beat two weak Oaks fields and is too short here. I know she didn't have clear runs in at least two of the four starts this prep, but I don't consider her any better at 2400 than 2000 and she couldn't win against many of these in the Turnbull after having a nice run. Here she meets horses who are better suited at 2400 than they were there so I'm laying her.

13 AQUA D'AMORE (Gai Waterhouse) Stephen Baster 52
Ran a sound race in the Turnbull without ever really threatening to win. Proven at the trip and against reasonable opposition but there is also the slight feeling that her performance level is already well enough known and she might need not be able to improve the length or two required to win here. Good enough to win if the race went her way, but not good enough that I'd want to back her.

14 DIZELLE (John Hawkes) 52
Ran on in the Metrop, much as she had done in her AJC Oaks win over the same course and distance. The difference is she actually had stayers in front of her in the Metrop. Even if she runs on as usual here it will most likely be too slowly and the horses in front of her won't be as thoroughly stuffed as those she ran past in the Oaks. Should be 100-1.

15 ICE CHARIOT (Ron Maund) Jim Byrne 52
Went an improved race in the Craven Plate when the pace was against him. I still can't go past the fact that he was so well ridden in his Queensland Derby win that if he was going to win a Caulfield Cup he would have put them away by about 4 lengths in that race over the same distance on his favourite course. A rough chance but couldn't back him.

16 TESTAFIABLE (Peter Moody) Luke Nolen 52
Similar to Ice Chariot he found the line well enough in the Craven, but he'd had a softer trip and it rated as ok without making you want to run out and back him given the difference in class here. Strong runs in both Derbies he contested this year suggest he can actually go a decent 2400, but this may be a couple of lengths too hard for him.
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