SR3 Wyong,

In the prelude to this race, I could not believe the logic of the commentator when evaluating the prospects of runners in the upcoming event!
He stated that No2 Nairobi won it's last start in a maiden and with the apprentice's claim(2kg) it held an advantage over the topweight, Twin Wing.
Twin Wing, the eventual winner(($1.6w $1.1plNSW) beat Nairobi in a close finish but on my calculations was an absolute certainty!
Any form student will confirm the most difficult rise in grade is from maiden class to class1. Yet, the eventual winner, Twin Wing(No1), had run a respectable race in Cl2 last start and was dropping back to Cl1 today!
Nairobi, had won a maiden last start carrying 51kg and was to carry 54.5kg today less the 2kg apprentice claim.
So,......I ask you ......where is the advantage for Nairobi? The topweight was always the class runner in the field and had a distinct advantage over Nairobi and proved this by winning, although the runner-up ran a respectable race!
Due to this "anomaly" I duly increased my bet on Twin Wing and duly collected.
Moral Of Story: trust your own judgment and wager accordingly!

Cheers.