I was asked a question about multiple betting using the ratings on another forum. Here's my reply:
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I don't really like telling people how they should bet on the ratings. After all, different people bet in different ways. But personally, when it comes to multiple betting, I think the best way to go is probably just to take the top 2, 3 or 4 rated runners for first and the top 6, 7 or 8 for the placings, depending on affordability.
As an example, it was possible to get the big first 4 on the last at Moe yesterday simply by taking the top 4 for first and the top 7 for the placings, just exactly as they were set out in the ratings:
MOE R9
78 . $2.3 . 5 . BROKAW
29 . $6.3 . 1 . SERENE PRINCE
28 . $6.5 . 6 . CHARLIE BUB
26 . $6.9 . 4 . STEPTOE - WON
25 . $7.4 . 12 . CLASSICARL - 4th
19 . $9.5 . 3 . KELTHORPE - 3rd
5 . $33.3 . 11 . ROCKY DALE - 2nd
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Others:
2 . $100.0 . 13 . PRESSURE PACK
Now, certainly not many could afford a 4x7x7x7 first4 for a dollar unit, but those who have access to flexi betting could have had a very good result. The first4 paid around $13,000 in NSW, $10,000 in Victoria and there was a jackpot on Unitab where flexi betting is not available. If a 4x7x7x7 first4 is simply not an option, then perhaps try to go with just 2 horses for first or maybe 3??? While that wouldn't have been successful on that Moe race, it certainly would have been on others.
Now as to working out what the best multiple betting races are, I personally prefer to stick to the top 7 rated runners if at all possible. As a result, I think the best races to look at are probably those where there are no more than 7 horses above the line (the cutoff point of 5 ratings points). As you can see, that was the case in the above example of Moe R9.
In races where there are 8 or 9 horses above the cutoff point, but there is a clearly defined top 4 and a clearly defined top 7, then those races are also acceptable. (Races with 8 above the line would generally be better than those with 9) As a rule, any races where there are 10 or more horses above the cutoff point of 5 ratings points, are generally regarded as being too tough, and you should perhaps look elsewhere. Certainly as far as First4s are concerned. Other races to avoid are those where the top rated horse has less than 40 ratings points (a rated price of $4.50). Personally, I have a preference for races where the top 2 rated runners both have 50 points or more, or where the top 3 rated runners all have 40 points or more.
Here are some examples from the last week or two where multiple betting using the ratings could have paid off.
Saturday October 7
RAND R3
53 . $3.4 . 6 . CATECLIPSE - WON
53 . $3.4 . 9 . ICE CHARIOT - 4th
33 . $5.6 . 2 . ABOVE DECK
16 . $11.1 . 12 . GAWNE - 3rd
15 . $11.8 . 8 . TESTAFIABLE - 2nd
15 . $12.5 . 3 . EVASION
11 . $16.7 . 10 . SWANSEA
5 . $40.0 . 5 . MAHTOUM
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4 . $50.0 . 4 . MR MARTINI
2 . $100.0 . 7 . TOULOUSE LAUTREC
RAND R5
67 . $2.7 . 8 . BENTLEY BISCUIT - WON
46 . $4.0 . 14 . MAGNUS - 2nd
40 . $4.5 . 3 . WRITTEN TYCOON
19 . $9.5 . 4 . BLACK INK - 4th
18 . $10.0 . 1 . SPARK OF LIFE - 3rd
9 . $20.0 . 7 . FALAISE
6 . $28.6 . 13 . LANTWIN
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2 . $100.0 . 11 . FOX LAKE
2 . $100.0 . 12 . MAGICALLY
2 . $100.0 . 2 . MUSTARD
FLEM R7
53 . $3.4 . 10 . FAST 'N' FAMOUS - WON
50 . $3.6 . 1 . DANCE HERO - 3rd
42 . $4.3 . 6 . BEL DANORO
34 . $5.4 . 9 . SHADOWAYS - 2nd
20 . $9.1 . 3 . UNDUE - 4th
5 . $40.0 . 8 . CALIFORNIA DANE
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4 . $50.0 . 4 . RECAPITALIZE
2 . $100.0 . 5 . MINSON
FLEM R10
66 . $2.8 . 16 . ACCARDO - 4th
32 . $5.7 . 1 . ROYAL IDA - WON
24 . $7.7 . 3 . THREEDEE
23 . $8.0 . 2 . CHIACK - 2nd
22 . $8.3 . 8 . THIN AND CRISPY
19 . $9.5 . 10 . ORANGE COUNTY - 3rd
15 . $12.5 . 7 . BIRD DANCER
10 . $18.2 . 4 . VOLITANT
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2 . $100.0 . 9 . ELBRUS
2 . $100.0 . 11 . JUGGLE THE BOOKS
Saturday October 14
CAUL R3
86 . $2.1 . 2 . INDUSTRIOUS
50 . $3.6 . 8 . SPLASHING OUT - WON
20 . $9.1 . 5 . SATIN ROBES - 4th
20 . $9.1 . 3 . FLAME OF SYDNEY - 3rd
16 . $11.1 . 7 . TANGO FIRE
11 . $16.7 . 4 . CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - 2nd
6 . $28.6 . 6 . MCFLY
5 . $40.0 . 1 . FOLLOW THE TILL
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Others:
2 . $100.0 . 9 . YOUNG LOVE
CAUL R7
66 . $2.8 . 1 . COURT COMMAND - 3rd
42 . $4.3 . 13 . ANAMATO
40 . $4.5 . 4 . WONDERFUL WORLD - WON
25 . $7.1 . 7 . DANEVER
18 . $10.0 . 8 . MUZDAHER
15 . $11.8 . 2 . CHURCHILL DOWNS - 4th
5 . $33.3 . 3 . EXCITES - 2nd
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Others:
1 . $200.0 . 11 . ESCADAIRE
1 . $200.0 . 5 . THE ONE
CAUL R8
60 . $3.0 . 4 . RED DAZZLER - WON
47 . $3.8 . 1 . DARCI BRAHMA
40 . $4.5 . 7 . REWAAYA - 2nd
21 . $8.7 . 8 . MAYBE BETTER
14 . $13.3 . 3 . PRIMUS
9 . $20.0 . 2 . NICONERO - 3rd
9 . $20.0 . 5 . UNDUE - 4th
8 . $22.2 . 11 . TEMPLE HILLS
5 . $40.0 . 9 . CARGO CULT
ROSE R6
52 . $3.5 . 1 . COMMANDING VICTORY
47 . $3.8 . 8 . PATRIOTISM - WON
33 . $5.6 . 2 . PARTY CRASHER - 3rd
21 . $8.7 . 5 . THE FANGSTA - 4th
17 . $10.5 . 9 . BIG EAGLE
17 . $10.5 . 10 . FAT POSSUM - 2nd
10 . $18.2 . 6 . THUNDERBIRDSAREGO
6 . $28.6 . 4 . RED VALENTINO
5 . $33.3 . 3 . O'RESONATE
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Others:
4 . $50.0 . 13 . REGAL EXPOSURE
2 . $100.0 . 12 . GAME STAR
2 . $100.0 . 11 . ON THE MAP
All of those first4s paid quite well, most of them in the thousands, and you could have won all but one of them with a 2x7x7x7. (With the Guineas last week, you would have needed 3 horses for 1st)
Referring back to flexi betting, there is always the chance for someone to box up any number of rated runners of course. But in the last few weeks, you could have boxed just the top 5 or 6 rated runners and got some nice results. Back on September 30, anyone boxing just the top 5 horses in the last race in Sydney would have got a huge first 4 payout. The 5th rated horse Whoever (which I had rated at just $10) won and paid $60 on Unitab!!!
RAND R9
54 . $3.4 . 7 . ESKAW
51 . $3.6 . 6 . KAKAKAKATIE - 3rd
44 . $4.2 . 1 . COOLROOM CANDIDATE - 2nd
23 . $8.0 . 3 . AT EASE - 4th
18 . $10.0 . 11 . WHOEVER - WON
12 . $15.4 . 2 . STREET SMART
9 . $20.0 . 9 . OPERETTA LASS
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3 . $66.7 . 4 . FREEROLLER
2 . $100.0 . 10 . PAULINI
That $60 about Whoever is one example of a big overlay with the ratings. As a rule, when it comes to win or each way betting, I generally stick to just the top 2 or 3 rated horse, but when a lower rated horse provides such a huge overlay, then I'll have a bet.
I hope all this rambling answers some of your questions. Starting from tomorrow, I'll try to outline which races should be the best multiple betting races.
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