
20th July 2003, 09:22 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
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Crash,
Last year I would have agreed with you, but now I would have to disagree. I suggest you have a look at the statistics on raw POT figures for bets on various odds ranges. For odds-on favourites (1.90 or less) the loss from backing EVERY runner at this price is only about 5% (using best available TAB odds or a product like DiviPlus) compared to the average 15% loss for all runners. Basically this is due to the "longshot" bias in the TAB and bookies markets so you actually have a much smaller disadvantage to overcome with odds-on runners than longer odds horses.
Now I am not suggesting that you should only back short priced horses but I certainly wouldn't disregard them - it is definetly possible to make a profit from them!
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