[quote]
On 2003-07-21 13:07, Dr Pangloss wrote:
crash - you have been offerred some very good advice which of course you are free to reject. In rejecting this advice consider for a moment that the point of the debate, market efficiency (longshot bias) has long been dealt within the sphere of academia.
You don't have to read all these papers to realise the market efficiency debate is over.

No one is claiming short priced horses offer profitable value on price alone. But looking for value in longer priced horses is not only futile, it is delusory - the mug punters Saturday afternoon fantasy.
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La Mer: Just to support what Dr. Pangloss and others have already stated, that is the further you get away from the favourite the more you are likely to lose - all the research over the years have indicated this, including more recent research in Australia.

For those that don't believe this to be the case, then the simple answer is to provide some proof, similar to what I've provided below which clearly indicates that the short end of the market is the area that needs to be concentrated on.

Odds On Shots: Strike-rate: 51.1% LOT: 4.1%
Evens to 9/1: Strike-rate: 16.1% LOT: 17.6%
(LOT equals Lose On Turnover)

and it only gets worse the longer the odds get.