Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
How about this one:
"On the Cox Plate I find it amazing how some people actually believe that Miss Finland can win. I give her no hope of winning as per my recent article of 19/10/06 entitled “Miss Finland wouldn’t win a Cox Plate if she started now”. How so may supposedly learned people can read her so wrongly is beyond belief. They all said what a great win it was the other day in the Thousand Guineas. What a lot of rot, because except for a short half head, she’d have a 100% success rate at failure in three tries at 1600 metres. She cannot run 1600 metres this filly, so how the hell can she run 2040 metres against all age horses? Now let me ask all the experts who are tipping her one question. She beat Permaiscuous by one inch the other day and she got run down over 1600 by She Will Be Loved the start before and before that she beat stablemate Anamato a neck in the Tranquil Star Stakes. Now would anyone fancy backing any of Permaiscuous, She Will Be Loved or Anamato to win a Cox Plate? No, even the mob at Nimbin don’t get that high during a normal day"!
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G'day again crash,
Not saying I disagree with the author, but I think his argument does have some flawed logic.
1. A short half head makes all the difference, ask the jockey of any champion horse, especially the likes of Octagonal or Northerly.
2. She's won at 1600m, does that mean she can't run out 2040m?
We don't know, I doubt it too, but we don't know.
She can run 1600m - she won!
3. Leave the folks at Nimbim out of this, I think the authors been picking mushrooms
It doesn't matter what ran second to her, it's not what she beat - it's what ran behind her - there's an important difference in terminology and assessment. What matters is the class and distance of the race.
But I still don't think she will run a place, just pointing out some weird logic.
Added: What does worry me is that she's never raced at the Valley for starters.
Also she had two tries at 1600m and won one of them as a 3yo, and lost by less than a length as a 2yo filly. The other 1600m trip was actually 1610m and she was beaten less than a length - 10m = ???
So three starts at 1600m (if ya like), and not ran worse than 0.8L of a length from the winner. To say she can't run 1600m is ridiculous. :P