Thread: Arbitrages
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Old 22nd November 2006, 01:44 PM
AssumeTheCrown AssumeTheCrown is offline
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Classic case of conditional probability. IF England do win the 1st test then their odds of winning the 2nd test will be shorter than 8.5 you would assume. And IF they won the 2nd test then the odds would be shorter again and so on. It is very hard to estimate a true probability of an exact series score but i would guess an England 5-0 result as about 4000 to 1 which in laymens terms would seem like gross unders! Theres no doubt those wanting to back England at 400/1 have more money than sense. I predict Australia to win 3-1.
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