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Old 27th November 2006, 06:37 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
Default Ashes Probability Puzzle

With 5 wickets remaining of the 4th innings the batting team B is 354 runs behind A.

B has a 1% probability of winning the match.

Question: What is the probability of a tie?

Assume:

Draw impossible.

B averages 1 run for every wicket-free ball.

Hint: should be able to solve with spreadsheet using a function whose name has at least 10 letters.
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