
27th November 2006, 02:54 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Consistency
I just thought I would post an example on how important consistency is in system development. Here is an example of a bad system :
Month 1 : 177 Bets with a Profit 20%
Month 2 : 133 Bets with a Profit 25%
Month 3 : 125 Bets with a Profit 22%
From here a lot of people would start betting the system
Month 4 : 115 bets Loss of 5%
Month 5 : 126 bets Loss of 4%
Month 6 : 110 bets Profit of 15%
Month 7 : 150 bets Loss 50%
Month 8 : 117 bets Loss 30%
Month 9 : 105 bets loss 40%
Alternatively I also have a system that does the following :
Month 1 : 5 bets with a Profit 400%
Month 2 : 7 bets with a Profit 300%
Month 3 : 9 bets with a Profit 122%
Month 4 : 3 bets with a Profit 105%
Month 5 : 5 bets Loss of 4%
Month 6 : 5 bets with a Profit 240%
Month 7 : 6 bets with a Profit 350%
Month 8 : 4 bets with a Profit 100%
Month 9 : 5 bets with a Profit 520%
I prefer to use this system altought it doesn't have many bets becasue it is more consistent on the results. ie 8 months in profit out of 9 whereas the other is only profitable 4 out of 9 months.
I would say you need a minimum of 2 years testing before you can declare a system consisitent.
Good Luck.
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