Thread: Consistency
View Single Post
  #5  
Old 28th November 2006, 05:51 AM
crash crash is offline
Suspended.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default

Mr Logic is basically saying [?]: if you toss a penny often enough you'll end up with about an even score for both heads and tails because the odds are evens. It's only with relatively few throws where the scores can be wildly different as in the absurd profits shown above for the 'few bets system'.

What many throws [bets] demonstrate in a negative expectation game such as horse racing [because the odds overall are against the punter], only one result can possibly occur ...LOSS!

The more bets we have the more probability kicks in and favours the odds [against].

Naturally, in a negative expectation game the less bets we have the better. Why? Because although there is also a chance of showing a loss, a chance of showing a good profit exits too, even if the odds overall are against us.

The challenge for the long term System, is to produce circumstances where overall the odds are genuinely in our favour [turning horse racing into a positive expectation game]. Not and easy task at all !
Reply With Quote