Good point Crash. The winner actually paid a little better on the tote. I have never denied that will happen. That means that some other horses must have been even better odds with the bookies than the tote, as it is fact that most tote punters clamour around the top few horses in the betting market generally sending them around at inflated unders compared to when bookmaker betting markets are below 110%.
However logic must indicate that if a punter is betting into a market of 105% the chances of getting better odds overall MUST be significantly better than when betting into a tote starting price only market of 120%.
Logic MUST indicate than the winners in a 105% market MUST overall be at better odds than in a 120% market. Not every winner, but overall the winners MUST pay better odds.
I remember when we were promoting another TAB with a much smaller take we met with the same statistically invalid arguments here from punters that the odds were no better and in fact or worse.
As for "cherry picking" a race. Hardly. I've got far better things to do with my company's time than replying to someone's question on a forum by using a "cherry picked" race so as to give them an answer that is wrong. So let's look at the next race on the programme at Randwick last Saturday.
Randwick R5.
Break The Barrier $13.00 7.69%
Grandiloquent $5.50 18.18%
Red Robert $12.00 8.33%
Prima Nocte $4.80 20.83%
Operatta Lass $4.60 21.74%
Taken At The Flood $4.80 20.83%
Lancaster Park $61.00 1.64%
Legend Of Goku $401 0.25%
Beat The Tide $26.00 3.85%
Market percentage 103.34%. Surprise. This market is even closer to 100% than the one I allegedly "cherry picked"!
Personally I wouldn't waste my time betting on horses if I was forced to only bet into absurd markets of 120%+ which are so massively weighted against the punter.
Most punters unfortunately choose what is "easy". That is why they are just about guaranteed to lose money over the long term. As in life in general choosing the "easy" option does not usually succeed. I just hope it is entertainment money they have budgeted to lose and that they do not seriously expect to win at racing choosing what is the "easy" option.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by crash
TF of who? Bob, Bill and Benny the bookies?
Great TF prices from a cherry picked race, as long as you didn't back the winner !
Syd. R4
Geigeron $5.00w [Bob, Bill and Benny]
$5.20w Uni tab
$5.30w Vic tab
It's all swings and slides in the end regardless of where you bet. You'll gain on some bets and lose on others.
For the average $100 [Sat. bank] punter, they should go with whatever is easy. TAB is easy and there is no credit lines or bank transactions involved either [which incur charges].
Bet cash and get payed in cash or have a TAB account which allows simple cash in cash out transactions. A few cents here and there aren't going to make the slightest difference long term as it all comes out in the wash at about even or maybe a schooner either way!
|