31st December 2006, 05:50 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Hi crash,
This is indeed a topic that can be construed many ways and dissected in various manners.
Looking at Favourites, with all the technology and information at hand, one would imagine an increase in strike rate, yet there is none.
My take on this, is that here we have a "group" of horses, which for the most part have and always have had very obvious credentials. Therefore advances in technology are of no real impact on which is selected as favourite.
The advances have merely impacted on price to an extent of firm favourites or easy favourites.
Therefore the strike rate will not change because only a certain percentage of them will ever win.
My opinion is that the actual horses selected have not changed to any real degree to impact the strike rate, but the prices have been impacted.
I have no hard evidence to back this up, it's only observation and conjecture, however, it is my bone of contention that a $1.50 favourite today may well have been $1.60 or $1.70 favourite 50 years ago. A $6.00 favourite may well have been a $4.50 favourite 50 years ago.
In summary, I believe that the market has become a truer reflection of a favourite's chances and that we are getting it more correct, but the strike rate has not and will probably never change.
This is only my take on it, and I have no proof.
Have a great New Year
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