31st December 2006, 07:41 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Because 70% of those favoured horses will be beaten by horses which should not be favourite, that's just the way it goes.
Of the horses that beat the favourites, no amount of extra information will make them favourite because the group favourite has obvious credentials to make it favourite.
Example:
A horse that won it's last start in a Group1 race gets rolled by a maiden.
No amount of information will make the maiden favourite, even though it won, because the Group 1 horse has the best form, best time, best class, best ratings etc etc.
The only way the maiden will be favourite is if the trackwork is public and has won the trial in better time / lengths. Computers will have no bearing on this.
Even if favourites won 95% of races, you couldn't get it to 100%, no matter what information you had at hand.
I suspect the 30% will never improve because there is still luck, fitness, jockey, going, distance queries attributing to demise, no information can predict luck in running, only impact price.
So prices are affected, not strike rate.
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