Thread: American Racing
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  #14  
Old 22nd January 2007, 04:59 PM
mad mad is offline
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Well your point is fair and well taken. Not to continue the argument, but it's a reasonable point worth discussing:

If you consider the size and quality of fields in a lot of these races, then statistically, if we have small fields of varying degrees of quality and the market ascertains that one particular horse has superior ability, then we are likely to have a situation where the favourite starts at very short odds. This would suggest that the favourite should win approx 1 in 2 races, assuming the favourite is priced accordingly, as is often the case. Under these circumstances it is hardly surprising to see the favourite win 10, 12, 20 times in a row and then get rolled 10, 12, 20 times in a row. Think heads v. tails in a coinflip.

From a statistical standpoint this would suggest that in fact the U.S market is as accurate as would be expected.
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