25th January 2007, 02:06 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dingoboy
Where is the most reliable place to find SP favs ?, is it what is normally the fav in the ol paper form guide ? or is it the opening price on say the tab, interesting though, nice and simple system.
Cheers Ding
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This is one problem I encountered with the system when I tested it a few years ago.
On the tote, the favourite can be anything, you just don't know in an open market. Sometimes I ended up backing the wrong horse when the winner came from the favourite after the race had jumped.
Using bookie odds, sometimes the favourite blew like the north wind and a $3.00 bookie favourite ended up at $6 or $7 because of money for something else. This is particularly a trap in those early maiden and first starter races.
The best you can do, is bet as late as possible and risk an early jump, but markets update after they've gone and when you're chasing from 6 losers in a row over two days, it can really do damage not to mention the frustration when you get it wrong and the real McCoy wins with a leg in the air.
One way I overcame this was to bet based on volume rather than starting price. I made up a spreadsheet to track the volume turned over on each horse and went with the volume rather than the price. Volume is sometimes a better guide. Of course, it wasn't always right, but it seemed to be more accurate up to a certain point before they jumped and a pretty good indicator of what was likely to jump favourite. |