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Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Power Pays are simply a temporary correction.
You can't exploit it when bookies already have in place counter measures such as best of two or average of three.
There are simply better ways to get a better return.
The bottom line is that at the first race in Melbourne, the bookies paid 7c worse than STAB, and in Sydney 6c worse.
The "exchange" paid up to 20% better on both odds on favourites while Top Fluctuation paid the same as STAB.
As far as the "exchange" goes, regardless of what the TAB pays, overall the firming horses win, and the drifters lose, and you can make an overall easy profit on both!
I extend my sympathies to these 1% of Smartgamblers and Pro-Punters who are unable to grapple with an email link.
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CP,
I recall you once promoting TABs over Betfair.
Furthermore according to your product disclosure:
"In addition, when you purchase the RaceCensus database you also receive four free systems which show a six year profit on turnover at level stakes using only TAB prices!".
So how can you now argue the futility of trying to exploit a 10% bonus over TABs?
And unless I've missed something both Best Tote and SuperPrice (advertised here) are still available on Power Play days. So the bookie counter-measure argument is dead wrong. Obviously you churn away from any outfit that that's party-pooping this welcome price war.
Aside from all that the theoretical angle for exploiting Power Pays is compelling.
The 5.95% rake in question in theory equates to a market of 106.3%. In practice truncation makes that ~108%.
So if you can shave over 8% off you can "guarantee" a profit.
With IAS SupaDiv you can expect to shave:
2.50% = Premium over SuperTAB
3.33% = Effective Bonus on Thursday Deposits (10% on triple-rollover)
Only 2.17% to go.
So when you find you've matched on Betfair at significantly better than the TABs you can back the complementary runners at IAS for a favourable book.
One stunning example from yesterday was
Miss Andretti. You would have spurned this disconcerting drifter. But $3.20 and better was readily available at Betfair. Even with the full 5% commission that's $3.09.
The market difference between $3.09 and the SuperPrice $2.80 is 3.35%.
So mission more than accomplished.
Now surely no one playing this caper needs to be told about the harsh distinction between theory and reality. But with a little effort there are many ways of improving the favourable figures above. For example I suspect that effective Bonuses far better than 3.33% can be hustled.